Mason Morse Blog

By Tim Estin mba, gri | Previews Specialist | 970.920.7387 | Coldwell Banker Mason Morse Aspen
released May 6, 2013 v2.

For the prior week’s Aspen Snowmass property closings and under contracts, see Tim Estin’s blog released Monday mornings

Market Comments: April 2013 is tracking similarly to the same month in 2012 and 2011 for total units sold but off significantly in total dollar sales. Late March, April and early May are typically high closing periods in Aspen and Snowmass Village. For a detailed report on where the market stands at present, see The Estin Report: Q1 2013 State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market  published April 20, 2013.

Q1 2013 Highlights:

- In the 1st Quarter 2013 (Jan. 1- Mar. 31), the number of units, or properties, sold was up 6% from the same time last year, 90 units this year versus 64 last year, and dollar sales were down 23% at $148M this year versus $191M last year.

- A surge at the end of the year 2012 in big ticket $10M+ sales motivated by anticipated 2013 tax-changes seems to have taken the wind out of high-end Aspen dollar sales in the 1st Quarter 2013.

-  Instead, market activity has been dominated by smaller-sized and under $1M property sales and a flood of new Snowmass Base Village Viceroy condo sales selling at 60% off pre- recession prices since their sales program was re-activated Dec. 15, 12 after a 3-year market hiatus due to litigation issues and the recession.

- Comparing the past three years 1st Quarters shows continued loss of dollar sales momentum from the recession high point in Q1 2011.

- Yet, in light of the positive trending economic news throughout the country – a record level stock market, strong real estate performance on both coasts and especially in NYC and the Hamptons – it is a puzzle why the Aspen market has not performed better in Q1 2013.

-  Historically, the Aspen market has been last in, first out of recessions but presently, we appear to be trailing other high end markets.

- The big difference between this quarter and the same period last year is the significant increase in lower end sales under $1M, the lack of big ticket (+$10M) sales and a gaping hole of inactivity in the $5-10M sales range.

-  The increase in lower end sales indicates a widening of Aspen’s real estate recovery base no longer limited to exclusively headline capturing high-end purchases.

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Disclaimer:  The statements made in The Estin Report and on Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author not Coldwell Banker Mason Morse and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable,  however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin 970.920.7387 or tim at estinaspen.com  The Estin Report is copyrighted 2013 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution: “The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Real Estate Market, By Tim Estin, Aspen broker.”