Mason Morse Blog

(The opinions expressed herein represent the opinions of Tim Estin mba, gri,  a Broker Associate at Mason Morse Real Estate, not the opinion of the firm. This blog post and its content do not represent the opinions of Mason Morse Real Estate. The opinions are my own. I assume all responsibility and liability for all actions arising from the information and article.  This post, and other Estin Reports: State of the Aspen Real Estate Market, can be viewed at www.EstinAspen.com Please read  Full Disclaimer at the end of this blog post.)

It’s early Feb. 2010… If you are a buyer, now may be the time to strike:  seller’s have taken the big price hits – anything more is likely to be incremental, interest rates are at near historic lows, the economy seems to have bottomed and there is still only one Aspen.

Big expensive homes have been selling -  At the end of Dec. 09, a beautifully restored 6,000+ sq ft  West End AspenVictorian closed at $14.1M (from $17.25M ask price) MLS 113782, See The Estin Report: Jan 3, 2010 blog post); on Nov 4th, a Castle Creek property just outside of Aspen listed at $25M closed at $17.5M. This makes (10) ten homes that closed from $10M – $43M in 2009, ( link is valid to 03/08/2010).  A stunning new contemporary Red Mountain home just reduced its price $10M (-29%) to $19.95M (see Nov 1 – 8th blog).

And then there have been some great deals on newly built or recently remodeled properties as well as lower end, under $1MM properties.

On sold prices, we have witnessed a number of Aspen single family homes close at 25-40% less than original list prices from more than a year ago (not from current ask prices). These are Original List Prices pre-Oct. 2008 economic melt-down. Aspen condos, while experiencing a considerable uptick in Aug. and Sept., are closing generally at 10-20% off original ask prices from the pre-economic crisis fall ’08  period. Those big price concessions and subsequent discounted closings have sobered current sellers on the market realities and just what it takes to sell. They are slowly and painfully reducing their ask prices. But some sellers remain intransient, or as a November ’09 NY Observer article calls them, “the last swaggerers of 2007″, clinging to a belief that the market hasn’t changed since 2007 and that Aspen is still immune from the economic meltdown. In the meantime, inventory levels continue to swell.

For a clear picture on where pricing and values are in early 2010, see the three 2009 Estin Reports recently posted:
1) The Estin Report: State of Aspen Snowmass Real Estate – 4th Qtr 2009
2) The Estin Report: State of Aspen Snowmass Real Estate – Year 2009
3) The Estin Report: 2004 – 2009 Yearly Comparisons Aspen Snowmass Real Estate.

Historically, Aspen has been last in, first out of recessions but this time is looking different. As the rest of the country may slowly be recovering, there are concerns that the high end luxury market has been increasingly suffering in the past few months. In general, national foreclosures in this segment are up dramatically, prices are down, and the inventory of high end homes for sale continues to grow. See the Aspen Real Estate Archives Section of www.EstinAspen.com for the many recent archived national articles on the rising foreclosure rates within the high end residential property market.

Yet at the time I write this, there is also the possibility of a  “Wall St Bonus Bounce” in Aspen to contemplate, the fact that the Hamptons are alive with real estate activity (albeit at significantly reduced prices), high end luxury products are coming off their sales lows and other signs of improvement in our luxury marketplace.

Wherever we are in this downturn, some sellers are highly motivated while others have become more realistic. No longer is there a stand-off between buyers and sellers – negotiations are taking place, and categorically, there are Aspen deals for the making and unique Aspen properties – rarely if ever available – may be obtainable and within reach.

In the early ’80′s, interest rates were 21% and nothing, absolutely nothing, moved. It was worse. I was here. We got through it then and we will again. For buyers, there are quite simply almost incomprehensible Aspen real estate opportunities at present that very few, if any, would have thought possible just a few short years ago.

There’s no question, this has been a tough, very fortifying and humbling past year and a half for the local real estate market. But for the long term, there’s no other place I’d rather call home and ride out this storm than in Aspen.

Last updated: 2/8/2010

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or at testin@masonmorse.com. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2010 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution:”The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Market, By Tim Estin, mba, gri, www.EstinAspen.com”

Tags: 4thqtr 2009, aspen real estate, market activity, market report, real estate statistics, snowmass real estate, the estin report, tim estin, year 2009

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