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The Estin Report: 2nd Quarter/1st Half 2012 State of the Aspen Market - Just released

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By Tim Estin mba, gri Broker Associate with Coldwell Banker Mason Morse Aspen

Click image for executive summary and full report

Coldwell Banker Mason Morse Aspen broker Tim Estins complete weekly post on the prior week's Aspen property sales is released Monday mornings at his website and at times during the week. The Estin Reports: State of the Aspen Market and Monthly Market Snapshots are available there as well. Postings at CBMM are condensed. For the latest Aspen real estate news, sales statistics and market activity, follow him on twitter @EstinAspen. For seller or buyer sales assistance, please call him at 970.920.7387 or email: testin@masonmore.com

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            $12 miollin.Torre said he didn't know.Tim said $23 miollin.The difference among the three is Semrau had a spreadsheet and all the numbers and projections from Paul Menter, the city's finance chief, a man who is damn good at what he does.So I said to Mick: There's another $9 miollin ($11 miollin, actually) in the RETT affordable housing fund that you didn't even know about. Doesn't that mean there's enough money to do what Tim wants to do in terms of raising the appreciation cap on people who sell their homes?Mick took umbrage and said that wasn't the point a good point, I think. But it doesn't change my point: that of the three only Semrau had bothered to find out how much money was in the fund. That would seem to me to be pretty basic knowledge necessary for a meaningful discussion of the future.Later in the show we dug deeper into finance when Tim said the projections through 2016 would yield more than $100 miollin in the RETT affordable housing fund, based on Menter's calculations. Torre said the numbers were wrong but had no evidence to support that contention. Mick dismissed the projections as hopelessly optimistic and predicted the bubble will burst.Mick is probably right about that, but the problem is those projections through 2016 are based on an estimate that the RETT will actually decline 30 percent in 2008, followed by a growth rate of 4 percent per year.Now, to me, a 4 percent RETT growth rate seems ludicrously low based on recent history a lowball estimate. Mick disagreed, but he had no projections or numbers of his own to back it up. In fact, he went much further, saying neither a candidate for Mayor nor the Mayor had any need for projections whatsoever.I completely disagree. I wonder how any city of any size can prosper without at least attempting to estimate how it will or will not grow, without trying long and hard to understand the revenue picture.The net net for me is that Tim did his homework and Mick and Torre had a near-complete disregard for the numbers. I consider a discrepancy of $11 miollin to be telling if not downright damning.You don't need a calculator to draw your own conclusions.Cheers, The Con Man!

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